Gamechanger of the building supply industry

After more than 15 years of a construction boom, the German construction industry is currently in crisis. The times when both volumes and prices in all segments of the construction industry only pointed upwards are over. The turnaround in interest rates has led to very high borrowing rates and thus to sharply rising overall costs, while at the same time foreign and domestic political uncertainties have increased. The war in Ukraine, associated increases in energy costs, uncertain regulatory framework conditions and an increase in trade restrictions and tariffs worldwide are just a few examples of this.

At the same time, the demand for affordable new housing (especially in urban centres) is increasing, as is the demand for climate-neutral existing buildings, i.e. the renovation of building shells, energy and heating systems, etc. In contrast to the subprime crisis in 2007-2009 in the USA, the crisis is therefore not due to a fall in demand, but rather a price shock on the supply side. But what exactly does this mean for the complex value chains of the construction industry, especially the diverse construction supply industry? What is the real impact of the current crisis, which segments are affected and how, and what scenarios exist for a positive future development? We explore these questions in this brief study, in particular the distinction between the traditional construction supply industry and the beneficiaries of New Construction.

PLEASE NOTE: The study is currently only available in German.